Serene Investors

Fridays options expiration was an excellent lesson in using trading signals using MACD. 

Early morning Break out of from base lead to  highs while MACD diverged lower. Resistence at 923-922 lead to a break of 918 neckline. 918 break lead to a target measured move from the peak to 913. MACD based toward afternoon and short covering bounce ended the day with some final volatility. Excellent movement for futures traders.

Euro futures (e7m9) showing signs of H&S reversal. Pattern also showing up in GLD (ygm9) and as an Inverse H&S in Dollar (uup). 

Target of this trade would be the distance from the head to neckline (1.43 to 1.39=400 pips) subtracted from the necline ( so 1.39-400 pips=1.35).

null

In order for a double top fromation to be valid and confirmed, a break below the 880-875 is needed. Otherwise, the trend is still an UP trend as seen by higher highs and higher lows. The 200 day moving average (not shown) on both the SPX and Dow are currently servings as our resistence where it would be logical to take profits for traders and investors of this bear market counter trend (while under the 200 day MA) which started March 9. The smoothing mechanism of the 200 day moving average is still above daily prices, which would signal that the market is still a seller at higher prices, therefore, signaling a continuation of the bear market still possible until further notice. Bulls must await a break of the 200 day and prices above 950. Stay tuned.

Hi Traders

This market is strong, but I am always aware it could drop just as quick so always use your stops and risk management.  The trade below is on OIH.  The first chart shows the Volatility Implied mean and it has come back down not quite as low as a while back but decent

Now lets look at the cup and handle pattern, is has formed over quite a bit of time and OIL in the future will be much higher in my opinion…it will move but higher prices is what OPEC wants….may take a few here. 

I am profitable on most of my option and stock positions, however this rally has gone for sometime, remember trends run longer than most expect and with many waiting for a pullback to get in there may not be one…however there could be so always KNOW YOUR EXITS before you enter

Be Serene

Vince

Hi Traders

Well, i will admit both my trades went south in what was my first real loss in a month.  I also was traveling and had a lot on my plate so perhaps i did not evaluate the trades as good as i should have.  I was filled on the GBPCAD short trade yesterday early and sold out same day for a bit over 200 pip loss.   OUCH!!!

The GBPNZD was down 300 last night but I did not panic and now down 45 pips…this one may come back we will see.  I however must now note in my journal that FOCUS is key…sometimes i shock myself that i make the same mistake i have made before….

Please traders, don’t trade when you are in HI STRESS or NOT FOCUSED…we all tend to do it but it will cost you as it has me.  I am off to Phoenix today and will not take any trades until i am back and fresh.  

On a good note my option trades have been VERY GOOD and I am cautious on the BULL so watching closely

Have a good trading day

Vince

Hello traders, 

Well if you followed my last weeks trades you would be up 100% as all were winners and some may still be in the trades, however if you are insure you have ZERO risk utilizing the 50 and BE strategy.  Let me share this weeks trade, we have the GPBCAD looking like a short. I will look to enter on short at 1.7612 with STOP at 1.7856 and will move once i gain 50 pips

TRADE 1

TRADE 2

Remember to use stops, control emotions and be Serene

Vince

Market needs to take out lows to continue topping formation. Breaking the lower high violates the bearish topping pattern.

Traders,

I have been working and tweaking different systems, formulas, tools and trades and so far have been very successful.  If you have been following me on TWITTER you know what i mean.  Here is what I am looking to trade the week ahead.  Remember, these are NOT in and out trades, these are trading the overall trend of the currency pair and both of these are BULLISH LONG trades.  Note the stop is far from the entry and if the risk is too much I can always switch from a mini to a micro account and take more lots.  I use the rule to enter the trade and take out 50 pips with ALERT and then move stop to Break Even.  I encourage you to paper trade these.  Why?  You must learn to trade and not just take trades handed to you, see why the do what they do and don’t risk real money in the learning mode.  Remember currency can make or lose you a lot of money, risk management is vital. 

TRADE 1:  BUY eurjpy at 132.96  STOP 129.39   

TRADE 2:  BUY chfjpy 87.5 STOP 85.73

See charts for more details

Have a great 3-day weekend Serene US traders and around the world have a great weekend.

Question:

If trading a Doji, quiet often I am concerned about nearby support or resistance, so do not take the trade immediately on the ideal candle, but rather wait for the next candle to break through support/resistance.  Is such a trade valid or should I forget it and wait for the next set-up?

Dear Trader,

A Doji is indicated as exhaustion or indecision.  Neither the buyers or sellers have taken advantage to move price in their direction and that supply and demand are balanced.

How to trade a Doji

A doji will commonly occur after a healthy price move and signals a potential formation of a pivot, so if you see a doji that appears after a trend that is either moving up or down, then it only starts to take on significance.

You can also have a doji in a what whereby price does not reverse, why is that?  Again, being a neutral candle, unless it occurs with other components of technical analysis, it does not mean much. When a doji is found where price is going sideways it loses its significance and goes back to being neutral.

Therefore, if you see a doji appear, look at other technical indicators, look to see if it has occurred at the end of a trend or price is moving sideways and most importantly, look to see if it has formed on a level of support & resistance.  This to me is the most important as it is more than likely to change direction.

Serene Trader, remember that if you see a doji appear on your chart and are unsure of the next move, ALWAYS wait to see what the next candle does before placing your trade.  The extra confirmation will give you the extra confidence in the trade.

Follow us on Twitter: 4xchick & SereneEducation & SereneTrader

With news out today that rocked cable, short term trades, with tighter stops were belted out of the market.

Cable on 15 minute chart

The reason that I say short term traders have been stung in oposed to long term traders, is that the stop placement is obviously different distances away from the price.  Looking at cable now - all long term signs still point upwards!!  Short term however, we have seen price rally back up after its major move and is now sitting firmly on the 50% Fib retracement line. 

Where could it go now? Who knows?  All I know that it is time to watch and wait again as we could see it hover here for a while before making its move..

Follow me on twitter: 4xchick

Learn to trade FX only £1500…. whilst seats last.. 

For more information, please email 4xchick@sereneinvestor.com